Hitting short returns back into the service box is a losing proposition – but typically against only first serves.

Depth is a foundational element of our sport, and it's one of four strategies that players look to exploit with the geometry of our rectangular court, along with consistency, direction and height.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of more than 10,000 return points by the Top 10 players in the ATP Rankings reveals that hitting short returns off first serves is asking for trouble. The speed of the first serve forces many defensive returns that land short, and the server typically cleans up coming forward.

But not so with second serves, where the return may be short, but it’s also typically hit more offensively, so at least the returner has some power working for them.

Current Top 10 Average - Win Percentage Returning Into Service Boxes

Returning First Serve = 42.3%

Returning Second Serve = 52.7%

The data set is accumulated from ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments and Nitto ATP Finals between 2011 and 2017.

First-Serve Returns In The Service Box
Juan Martin del Potro was the peak performer out of the current Top 10 in winning points against first serves that are returned short back in the service box at 45.1 per cent. Del Potro is currently No. 9 in the ATP Rankings, but moved all the way to first in this specific category.

Top 10 of the ATP Rankings: First-Serve Return Win Percentage - Returns In The Service Box

A likely reason is Del Potro’s omnipotent return power, no matter what shot is coming at him. Rafael Nadal is second best (44.5%), while World No. 1 Roger Federer is third, winning 43.9 per cent.

Second-Serve Returns In The Service Box
Only two of the current Top 10 players had a losing record when returning second serves short in the service box. The best was Federer, at 56.2 per cent, and then David Goffin, at 54.4 per cent. Federer and Goffin both feel the magnetism of the baseline so well early in a rally, and stay up in the court to begin the point much more than Dominic Thiem or Jack Sock, who were the two players who had a losing record.

The dynamic of early court position is definitely in play here. There is simply nothing good about standing way back to return a second serve and hitting it short.

Top 10 of the ATP Rankings: Second-Serve Return Win Percentage - Returns In The Service Box

Short returns in the service box are inevitable, but these new metrics certainly support drills for the practice court that put a premium on getting the return past the service line.