The Surprise That Pays Dividends For The Top 10
Deuce court. Second serve. Right-handed opponent.
You bounce the ball a couple of times and plan on serving to the backhand, like always. But as the match progresses you notice as you toss the ball that the returner is sometimes sneaking to their left to upgrade to a more potent forehand return.
You contemplate serving out wide to catch them sliding over, but you wonder if you are playing with fire. Is it too risky to direct a second serve wide to the forehand?
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 players in the ATP Rankings uncovers that, on average, the Top 10 directs their second serve wide in the Deuce court just 15 per cent of the time. It’s not a lot, but the surprise factor helps deliver the highest second-serve success rate of any location in the Deuce-court service box.
The message is clear. You can surprise to an opponent’s strength, but don’t overdo it. The most popular location for second serves in the Deuce court for the Top 10 is in the third of the court closest to the T, followed by in the middle, right at the body.
Current Top 10: Deuce Court Second Serves Hit (Service Box Evenly Cut Into Thirds)
| Location | Frequency |
| T | 56% |
| Body | 29% |
| Wide | 15% |
Grigor Dimitrov, currently ranked No. 5, enjoys the highest winning percentage (71.3%) hitting second serves out wide in the Deuce court of any Top 10 player.
Current Top 10: Deuce Court Second-Serve Winning Percentage by Location
|
Player |
T |
Body |
Wide |
|
58.0% |
59.8% |
71.3% |
|
|
58.7% |
52.0% |
69.6% |
|
|
60.9% |
60.4% |
68.0% |
|
|
59.5% |
60.6% |
67.7% |
|
|
56.7% |
54.5% |
65.5% |
|
|
64.1% |
59.2% |
65.3% |
|
|
60.1% |
59.9% |
64.6% |
|
|
57.9% |
50.8% |
58.8% |
|
|
55.9% |
55.2% |
58.4% |
|
|
53.5% |
59.0% |
56.6% |
|
|
AVERAGE |
58.6% |
58.1% |
64.2% |
Interestingly, nine members of the Top 10 enjoy their highest second-serve winning percentage with the mix-up out wide to the right-handers' forehand return. David Goffin was the only exception, winning more second-serve points jamming at the body in the Deuce court.
These analytics help us learn about subtle strategies in our sport, which wash right down to the recreational and junior levels. The vast majority of second serves should be directed at the body and backhand, but if the timing is right, mixing out wide to the forehand is a smart strategy.
