© Mike Lawrence/Miami Open

A 0/40 hole is nothing to Roger Federer.

For Federer, 0/40 Is Often Just The Beginning

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows Federer rallies the best on serve

It’s time for a “hot take” on point score to see how good your tennis intuition really is. Here’s a fun quiz that is focused on winning the game in two specific serve and return scenarios.

Scenario 1: Serving at 0/40
You are in the deepest serve hole there is. You need at least five points to hold serve, and for the first three points your opponent is salivating over break points. One slip and you are done.

Scenario 2: Returning at 30/15
Now you need only three points to break serve, while the server needs two. You are much closer to the finish line than the first scenario, but you don’t have the benefit of serving.

Have a think about it… Which scenario offers the highest percentage chance of winning the game?

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 from the 2015 season to this week identifies that, on average, they have a higher percentage of winning the game when serving from 0/40. The data set comes from ATP Masters 1000 events and the Nitto ATP Finals.

You May Also Like: Nadal Does This Better Than Anyone, Including Djokovic, Federer

Current Top 10 Average: Winning The Game
Serving from 0/40 = 19.0% (236/1240).
Breaking from 30/15 = 15.8% (2008/12715)

Eight of the current Top 10 adhered to this pattern, while only No. 9 Daniil Medvedev and No. 10 Fabio Fognini performed better breaking from 30/15.

Current Top 10: Holding from 0/40 - 2015 to Current Week

Ranking

Player

Holding from 0/40

Total 0/40 Points

Hold %

3

R. Federer

24

79

30.4%

2

R. Nadal

32

138

23.2%

4

D. Thiem

38

171

22.2%

1

N. Djokovic

25

119

21.0%

7

K. Nishikori

25

137

18.2%

8

K. Khachanov

16

93

17.2%

6

S. Tsitsipas

12

70

17.1%

5

A. Zverev

28

177

15.8%

10

F. Fognini

25

162

15.4%

9

D. Medvedev

11

94

11.7%

-

TOTAL / AVERAGE

236

1240

19.0%

Roger Federer leads the Top 10 in holding from 0/40 since the beginning of the 2015 season, at 30.4 per cent (24/79). Federer’s gap over second-placed Rafael Nadal is a substantial seven percentage points, or almost a 25 per cent increase. The other two players who were above the Top 10 average of 19 per cent were Dominic Thiem (22.2%) and Novak Djokovic (21%).

Current Top 10: Breaking from 30/15 - 2015 to Current Week

Ranking

Player

Breaking from 30/15

Total 30/15 Points

Break Percentage

2

R. Nadal

280

1417

19.8%

1

N. Djokovic

300

1538

19.5%

7

K. Nishikori

247

1429

17.3%

3

R. Federer

227

1396

16.3%

10

F. Fognini

198

1231

16.1%

5

A. Zverev

226

1525

14.8%

4

D. Thiem

245

1721

14.2%

9

D. Medvedev

101

779

13.0%

6

S. Tsitsipas

85

725

11.7%

8

K. Khachanov

99

954

10.4%

-

TOTAL / AVERAGE

2008

12715

15.8%

Nadal leads the current Top 10 in breaking from a 30/15 scoreline at 19.8 per cent (280/1417). Djokovic is hot on his heels, breaking 19.5 per cent (300/1528) from this specific scoreline. The other three players above the Top 10 average of 15.8 per cent are Kei Nishikori (17.3%), Roger Federer (16.3%) and Fabio Fognini (16.1%).

Your first instinct was probably to go with the 30/15 point score when returning, as it’s a fairly even battleground and you need only three points to break. But this analysis uncovers just how dominant the serve is. The biggest hole serving is actually not as deep as what you must encounter on the returning side of the equation.

More stories like this in: