Where do you need to direct your serve to make the prestigious Nitto ATP Finals? It turns out that variety works very well, and out wide slightly edges down the T as the most dominant first serve location at the elite level of our game.

Breaking down first and second serves by targets and win percentages is a new metric now available at www.atpworldtour.com, in the Serve & Return Tracker under the Stats tab. The data comes from ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments and Nitto ATP Finals from 2011 to present.

View The Serve & Return Tracker

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of first serve location from the eight players at the Nitto ATP Finals reveals that both the wide and T serves are used as primary locations.

Deuce Court First Serve Location
At Masters 1000 tournaments this year, six of the eight players in London preferred to serve wide in the deuce court with their first serves, but they often delivered their first serve to the T as well.

• Wide = 47.8%

• T = 46.0%

• Body = 6.2%

Interestingly, Marin Cilic served 73 more first serves wide than down the T, while Grigor Dimitrov was basically the opposite, serving 85 more first serves down the T than out wide.

Deuce Court First Serves During 2017 Masters 1000 Tournaments

Ad Court First Serve Location
Players also mixed up their first serve location in the Ad court.

• Wide = 46.1%

• T = 45.9%

• Body = 8.0%

Alexander Zverev liked the T a lot more than wide in the Ad court, serving 67 more first serves right down the middle of the court than out wide. Dimitrov loved the T serve a lot in the deuce court, but when he switches to the Ad court, his primary position switches to wide. Dimitrov hit 69 more first serves wide than down the T on this side.

Ad Court First Serves During 2017 Masters 1000 Tournaments

Summary

Roger Federer favoured wide on both sides, but only marginally. Staying ahead in the guessing game of serve location seems to be a hidden gem of the Federer serve arsenal. He was +28 serving wide in the deuce court, and +3 targeting wide in the Ad court.

Another trend seemed to run through the serve patterns as well. The more a player needed a point, such as 0/30, the more he would gravitate to his primary serve locations. The more of a lead he had, such as 30/0, the more he would take on risk and go to the secondary location, looking to surprise and confuse the returner.