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Keys To Winning In Turin

The three keys to success at the season finale

Let’s call them the “Torino Trio.”

When the best-of-the-best line up against each other - as they do in northern Italy this coming week at the Nitto ATP Finals - year-end glory will be grasped by the player who best adapts to the local conditions and rises to the occasion in the pivotal moments closing out a set.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the following three match metrics from the 2021 season point to world No. 1, Novak Djokovic, once again being a force to be reckoned with in the last event of the season. The Serb is chasing a record-tying sixth year-end title in Torino. The three key match metrics are: Indoor Matches Won; Record vs. Top 10; Tie Breaks Won

2021 - Indoor Matches Won

Djokovic’s only indoor event in 2021 was last week, where he won the Rolex Paris Masters. He defeated two players from the Torino field to take the title, edging Hubert Hurkacz in the semis in a third-set tie break and Daniil Medvedev 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 in the final. Interestingly, Djokovic won 19/22 serve and volley points in the final, successfully taking the battle immediately to the front of the court against the Russian. All eight Torino players have won more matches than they have lost on indoors in 2021, with Alexander Zverev (nine), Medvedev (nine), and Hurkacz (eight) being the only three players to win eight or more matches.

2021 - Indoor Matches Won

Player Match W/L Win %
N. Djokovic  5-0 100%
A. Zverev 9-2 82%
D. Medvedev 9-2 82%
C. Ruud 7-2 78%
M. Berrettini 3-1 75%
A. Rublev 7-3 70%
H. Hurkacz 8-4 67%
S. Tsitsipas 6-4 60%

2021 - Record vs Top 10

Djokovic is again at the head of the class in this important match metric, accumulating 12 wins and three losses against Top 10 opponents in 2021. The other three players with five or more wins against the Top 10 are Zverev (eight), Medvedev (seven) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (five). The rest of the Torino field are either at or below 50 per cent with Top 10 wins in 2021.

2021 - Record vs Top 10

Player Match W/L Win %
N. Djokovic 12-3 80%
A. Zverev 8-7 53%
D. Medvedev 7-4 64%
S. Tsitsipas 5-7 42%
H. Hurkacz 4-4 50%
A. Rublev 3-3 50%
C. Ruud 2-7 22%
M. Berrettini 1-6 14%

2021 - Tie-Breaks Won

Both Zverev and Matteo Berrettini have won two out of every three tie-breaks they have played in the 2021 season, with Zverev slightly edging the Italian for the most tie-break wins with 22 to 20. Casper Ruud, making his debut at the year-end championships, is in third place with tie-breaks won in 2021, winning 60 per cent (12-8).

2021 - Tie-Breaks Won

Player Match W-L Win %
A. Zverev 22-11 67%
M. Berrettini 20-10 67%
C. Ruud 12-8 60%
H. Hurkacz 19-13 59%
S. Tsitsipas 16-13 55%
A. Rublev 16-14 53%
N. Djokovic 11-11 50%
D. Medvedev 8-8 50%

Summary

There will surely be additional match metrics that bubble to the surface in importance in Torino in the coming days, but the ability to play your best against the best, do it on an indoor surface, and triumph in the clutch will remain key factors in who raises the trophy next Sunday.

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