You Have Rafa At 0/40 In Paris; That's A Good Thing, Right?
Infosys ATP Insights analyses Rafael Nadal's performances in Paris from 2017-2019
An Infosys Insights deep dive into Nadal’s past three title runs at Roland Garros (2017-2019) reveals five startling statistics from his 21 matches played, which include 277 service games and 263 return games.
1) Nadal Has A Winning Record Serving From 0/40
Nadal has only dropped to 0/40 when serving at Roland Garros from 2017-2019 in six service games out of 277, which equates to one out of every 46 service games. That’s twice as good as his ATP Tour average. In the same period from 2017-2019, outside of Roland Garros, he has found himself at 0/40 74 times from 1690 service games, which is one out of every 23 service games.
Getting Nadal to 0/40 is almost impossible in Paris. What’s even more startling is that of the six service games he has yielded a 0-40 start, he has roared back to win four of them.
2) Nadal Has A Winning Record Returning From 0/15
When opponents have won the opening point of their service game and surged to a 15/0 lead, they have gone on to win 70 per cent (86/122) of their service games against Nadal at Roland Garros the past three years. But if they lost the first point and fell behind 0/15, Nadal has instantly surged to become the favorite to win the game, breaking exactly two out of three times (94/141). It’s just one point, but it contains a substantial 37 percentage point swing from 70 per cent to 33 per cent for the server.
3) Nadal Unstoppable From 40/0
At Roland Garros over the past three seasons, Nadal has raced to a 40/0 lead in one out of every three service games he has played (102/277). When he gets to 40/0, he is an unstoppable force, winning all 102 service games from this dominant point score.
4) Nadal Another Level Holding From 0/30
Losing the first two points on serve and dropping to 0/30 is typically cause for alarm bells. The Top 100 on the ATP Tour own an average 42 per cent success rate in holding serve from this position on all surfaces, with the Top 10 owning a 48 per cent record. Both of those percentages are a losing proposition for the server. Nadal has fallen behind 0/30 just 24 times at Roland Garros over the past three tournaments and surged back to win an astonishing 71 per cent of those games (17/24). It’s almost like he is playing another sport.
5) Even Equals Advantage Nadal When Returning
When Nadal has returned serve over the past three years at Roland Garros and moved the point score along to the even moments in time at 15/15, 30/30 and Deuce, he actually becomes the favourite to win the game.
Nadal Returning: Breaking Serve Percentage (2017-2019)
|Serving Point Score||Hold Percentage||Games Won/Total|
Nadal is looking to add a 13th Roland Garros title to his illustrious trophy cabinet over the next two weeks. His first-round opponent is 27-year-old Egor Gerasimov from Belarus, who advanced to the second round at the Australian Open and US Open this year. Winning the opening point when serving and returning will be more consequential in this match than any other Gerasimov has played in his career.
2017-2019: Nadal Holding Serve (Point Score)
|Serving At||Hold %||Games Won/
2017-2019: Nadal Breaking Serve (Point Score)
|Returning At||Break %||Games Won/