Rafa, Novak & The Snowball Effect

Jun212017

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Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows how players gain confidence throughout their return games

Winning begets winning.

Winning just one point when returning creates a fascinating dynamic that helps increase the probability of winning a second. Win two points, and your percentages rise again to win the third. It all starts with one, but it snowballs from there.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Top 10 players in the Emirates ATP Rankings as of 12 June uncovers that there is a natural, underlying progression at work when players return serve. The data set is from the 2015 and 2016 seasons, as well as all 2017 tournaments up to and including Roland Garros. The data focus specifically on the three even point scores in a game:

Love All
15/15
30/30

1. Love All

On average, during the past two and a half seasons, the Top 10 have won the opening point of the game when returning 37 per cent of the time.

Server wins 0/0 point = 63%
Top 10 returning win 0/0 point = 37%

Rafael Nadal is the best of the Top 10 in this specific area, winning the opening point when returning 39 per cent (850/2125) of the time. Novak Djokovic and Kei Nishikori were tied at second best at 38 per cent.

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2. 15/15

Now that the Top 10 returner has gotten his teeth into his opponent’s service game – already winning a point on the returning side – at 15/15, the probability increases of winning a second point.

Server wins 15/15 point = 60%
Top 10 returning win 15/15 point = 40%

On average, the Top 10 improve three percentage points (37 per cent to 40 per cent) at 15/15 compared to 0/0. One point in the bank helps. Djokovic was the leader at this scoreline, winning 44 per cent (709/1629), while Andy Murray and Nadal were second best at 33 per cent.

3. 30/30

Now that the Top 10 have won two points returning, their chances increase again to win the third.

Server wins 30/30 point = 58%
Top 10 win 30/30 returning point = 42%

Love-all saw a 37 per cent chance of the Top 10 winning the point. That climbed to 40 per cent at 15/15, and climbs again to 42 per cent at 30/30. Nadal led the charge here with 46 per cent (530/1153) points won, with Djokovic and Nishikori second best at 44 per cent.

Top 10 (12 June): Return Points Won At 0/0, 15/15 & 30/30

Ranking	Player	0/0	15/15	30/30
1	Andy Murray	37%	43%	42%
2	Rafael Nadal	39%	43%	46%
3	Stan Wawrinka	37%	39%	42%
4	Novak Djokovic	38%	44%	44%
5	Roger Federer	35%	41%	40%
6	Milos Raonic	33%	37%	36%
7	Marin Cilic	36%	39%	41%
8	Dominic Thiem	37%	38%	42%
9	Kei Nishikori	38%	41%	44%
10	Alexander Zverev	37%	37%	39%
-	AVERAGE	37%	40%	42%

*Data from the 2015 and 2016 seasons, and the 2017 season, up to and including Roland Garros.

Top 10 vs. 11-20

Players ranked in the 11-20 range trailed by only one percentage point when comparing return points won at 0/0 and 15/15. But the Nos. 11-20 fell behind three percentage points at 30/30 compared to the Top 10.

0/0 Returning Win Percentage