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Beyond The Numbers

Carlos Alcaraz's baseline dominance

Alcaraz has won 58 per cent (206/358) of baseline points through his first four matches at the AO
January 20, 2025
Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analyses Carlos Alcaraz's baseline success at this year's Australian Open.
ATP Tour
Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analyses Carlos Alcaraz's baseline success at this year's Australian Open. By Craig O'Shannessy

Own the baseline, own the world.

Carlos Alcaraz is crushing from the back of the court at the Australian Open this year, winning a head-turning 58 per cent (206/358) of baseline points through his first four matches at Melbourne Park. That’s the leading number compared to players who have won at least one match to begin the tournament.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Alcaraz’s run to the quarter-finals sees him head and shoulders above his peers when finishing points standing at the back of the court. Below are the leading five baseline players still alive in the tournament.

Baseline Points Won (Active Players)
Carlos Alcaraz 58 per cent (206/358)
Alex de Minaur 56 per cent (204/365)
Jannik Sinner 54 per cent (172/316)
Alexander Zverev 54 per cent (193/355)
Alex Michelsen 53 per cent (172.325)

While Alcaraz has been putting up tournament-leading numbers from the baseline, his opponents are struggling to get anywhere near the Spaniard when points end at the back of the court. Alcaraz has won north of 53 per cent of baseline points in all four of his matches. His opponents have yet to crack 40 per cent points won in any match.

Below are Alcaraz’s four opponents and their win percentage from the baseline.
Rd 1: Alexander Shevchenko 32 per cent (31/96)
Rd 2: Yoshihito Nishioka 30 per cent (19/63)
Rd 3: Nuno Borges 39 per cent (55/142)
Rd 4: Jack Draper 36 per cent (27/74)

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It’s also interesting to note that the average win percentage for baseline points won so far this year is 47 per cent (13317/28555). There are only 22 players who have won greater than 50 per cent of baseline points.

Alcaraz’s forehand has been his weapon of choice from the back of the court so far this year. He has collected 79 forehand winners, while at the same time only hitting 25 off his backhand wing. Alcaraz’s total forehand errors (forced + unforced) is 107. He has also committed 99 off the backhand.

The math is simple for Alcaraz. His forehand has 54 more winners compared to his backhand while only committing eight more errors. He will be hoping to continue his forehand dominance all the way to the title.

It’s also important to understand that Alcaraz is not just getting it done from the baseline. When he ventures forward to the net, he has won 76 per cent (67/88) of points, positioning him as the fourth-best player still left in the tournament.

Alcaraz’s next opponent is Novak Djokovic. The Super Serb has won 50 per cent (219/439) of his baseline points to the quarter-finals. He must find another gear in critical baseline exchanges to get through the red-hot Alcaraz.

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