Inside Sinner's return: The stat that should scare the rest of the Tour

Jannik Sinner went more than three months without match action before returning at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. The results were positive: the 23-year-old made the final at the Foro Italico for the first time. But what did we learn about Sinner’s performance beyond wins and losses?

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis shows that his return performance in Rome will raise the alarm for opponents.

Sinner won more than 39 per cent of his return games across his six matches in the Italian capital, which is well above his career average (27.6%), his average on clay (32.6%) and the 2024 season on clay (33%). More impressively, in his first five matches of the tournament, the four-time ATP Masters 1000 champion won 48 per cent of his return games.

Sinner On Return

But it is critical to perform your best under the brightest spotlight, which for Sinner was in the final against Carlos Alcaraz. With the trophy on the line, he did not break the Spaniard’s serve once in 10 return games.

Nevertheless, for his first tournament after a period away from competition, it was a positive sign for the No. 1 player in the PIF ATP Rankings. To put the effort into context, only one player has won close to the same rate of return games on clay this season and that is Alcaraz, with the exact same 39.3 winning percentage.

In just one tournament, Sinner performed well enough to lead the ATP Tour’s 2025 clay leaderboard in first-serve return points won (40.8%) and second-serve return points won (57.8%).

His second-serve return performance does not necessarily stand out compared to his typical output. Sinner, who has won 54 per cent of second-serve return points in his career, is known for his powerful baseline strokes. The usual second serve — a kick serve that sits up or a slower delivery to avoid a double fault — is like a beach ball for the Italian, who is always ready to pounce and take control.

What was impressive was his first-serve returning. After time away, it would have been understandable if it took time for him to get used to not only putting first deliveries back in play, but doing so well enough to eventually win the point.

Sinner's Return Performance In Rome

The Rome finalist has won 35 per cent of first-serve return points on clay during his career. That means his first-serve returning success improved by more than 15 per cent in the Italian capital.

In five of his six matches, Sinner won more than 40 per cent of his first-serve return points. Entering the final, his win rate was 44 per cent. No player on record has broken the 40-per cent mark for his career on clay.

That does not mean there is not plenty of room for improvement, though.

“For sure there are some things like we saw today [that] we have to improve if we want to do good in Paris,” Sinner said. “I am closer than expected in a way [for] everything. But in the other way, it was good. It was a great week for me. Some matches [went] incredibly well, some matches could be better. But this is tennis. It's a lot of ups and downs.”