Serving up: Draper & Shelton set for Indian Wells power clash

Jack Draper and Ben Shelton will both hear opportunity knocking on Thursday at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, where a spot in a maiden ATP Masters 1000 semi-final is on offer.

At No. 12 and No. 13 in the PIF ATP Live Rankings, respectively, Draper and Shelton are each on the verge of a Top 10 breakthrough, and their quarter-final clash in the desert could prove a major stepping stone towards that elite status. With both players boasting explosive games, the battle of serves will likely shape the outcome.

Draper has been particularly clinical behind his first serve, posting an effectiveness score of 79.4 per cent, which sits well above the Tour average of 59.5 per cent. The Serve Effectiveness score shows the percentage of points in which the serve creates an advantage for the player. To calculate this, TDI Insights aggregates aces, unreturned serves and points where they attack on Serve +1.

The 23-year-old Draper has achieved service success through consistent pace and pinpoint precision, averaging 126 mph while landing deliveries 53 cm from the sideline. His ability to hit the spots has been a cornerstone of his performance in Indian Wells, helping him dismantle World No. 4 and 2022 champion Taylor Fritz in the fourth round.

“I think I played a really high-level match,” said Draper, who dropped just three of 35 first-serve points against Fritz, according to Infosys ATP Stats. “I struggled here in the past with my serve, but I thought that I served great today, and I think that put a lot of pressure on him. I returned well, as well. I think everything was sort of clicking today and I was really, really happy with my performance.”

While Draper’s first serve has been dominant during the tournament, the raw power Shelton is able to generate remains a pivotal component to his run to the last eight. The American has twice slammed serves clocked at 150 mph, and though his first-serve effectiveness score of 70.7 per cent trails Draper’s, it remains well above the Tour average (59.5 per cent) and is backed by an assured second serve.

Shelton’s second-serve effectiveness of 49.3 per cent is significantly higher than Draper’s 16 per cent. The 22-year-old averages 106 mph behind it, compared to the Briton’s 94 mph, allowing him to take time away from his opponents and disrupt their rhythm, something that could prove crucial in preventing Draper from finding his groove on return. Another hallmark of Shelton’s success this week has been his kick serve, which is proving particularly potent on the slower, higher-bouncing courts in the California desert. The American has won 32.4 per cent of his second-serve points via unreturned serves.

“I feel like I'm hitting my kick serve, one of the best I have hit in my life right now,” said Shelton after his 7-6(6), 6-1 victory against countryman Brandon Nakashima. “For me, I feel really confident going after the kick over and over if I can really stretch them with it. I have that spot pretty dialed in right now and I feel like I'm getting the most production out of it that I can.”

With Draper excelling in first-serve accuracy and Shelton wielding huge success from his second delivery, the margins in their maiden Lexus ATP Head2Head clash could be razor-thin.

For Draper, the challenge will be maintaining his first-serve accuracy and capitalising on any look at Shelton’s second serve. The British No. 1 has been rock-solid in his approach this week, and if he can continue to dictate behind his own delivery while staying sharp on return, he could well find himself celebrating a breakthrough at ATP Masters 1000 level. Meanwhile, if Shelton can continue to land his kick serve effectively and take control of the baseline exchanges early, he could dictate the tempo and tilt the match in his favour.