Tennis Insights reveal secrets of Medvedev's success

TDI

Is playing to your strengths the key when it comes to ATP Masters 1000 success?

Daniil Medvedev might suggest so. This fortnight, the 20-time tour-level titlist is looking to go one better than his championship-match run at last year’s BNP Paribas Open. While he may be chasing a slightly different result to 12 months ago, it is unlikely Medvedev will drastically change his method as he looks to win his first title in Indian Wells.

Before the top eight seeds step on court for their opening matches across Friday and Saturday in southern California, Tennis Data Innovations put together a 52-week average comparison chart based on its innovative Tennis Insights. The results reflect the uniqueness of Medvedev’s game style compared to his rivals at the top of the PIF ATP Rankings.

The seeds join the action @BNPPARIBASOPEN 🎾

Take a look at the top 8️⃣ seeds and how their 52-wk avg. stack up across the #Insights 📊

Who's going to outperform their avg. as the week progresses?#TennisInsights | @atptour pic.twitter.com/nzYUPm2UdC

— Tennis Insights (@tennis_insights) March 8, 2024

Medvedev’s In Attack score of 23% is the lowest of the top eight seeds, with Carlos Alcaraz (24%) the only other player to play a lower percentage of shots in attack than the ATP Tour average (25%). In contrast, Andrey Rublev, Holger Rune and Hubert Hurkacz are up at 27%, with Novak Djokovic, Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev just below them on 26 %.

While being on the attack more often can be a sign that a player is dominating matches, that has rarely been the case with Medvedev, who regularly acknowledges he has a less aggressive game style to many other players. The 28-year-old comes into his own with his back against the wall, something that is reflected in his superior Steal and Baseline Battles scores compared to his closest rivals.

Across the past 52 weeks, Medvedev has won 40% of points when he has been in a defensive position during the point. That is well clear of the Steal score average (34%) for the ATP Tour and ahead of the three players above him in the PIF ATP Rankings — Djokovic, Alcaraz (both 37%) and Sinner (36%).

The World No. 4 Medvedev’s Baseline Battles score of 57% also highlights a factor that could be key for his campaign in Indian Wells. He has won a higher percentage of points when both he and his opponent are at the baseline than any of his Top 8 rivals have done in the same situation.

When it comes to all-around Shot Quality, however, there is a different leader of the pack. Across the past 12 months, World No. 1 Djokovic leads the Top 8 in Shot Quality on forehand and backhand, while he is a joint leader with Medvedev on return. A five-time BNP Paribas Open champion, the Serbian will hope to maintain a similarly high level as he competes at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden for the first time since 2019.

The stop off in the slower and bouncier conditions of the California desert represent a unique challenge on the ATP Tour calendar. Medvedev will hope that sticking to his well-established game helps him outlast Djokovic and the rest of his rivals as he bids for glory in ‘Tennis Paradise’