Alcaraz: A Super Second-Serve Returner

Missing your first serve against Carlos Alcaraz is the beginning of the end.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the year-end Top 10 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings this season uncovered the 20-year-old Spaniard as the leader in winning return points against second serves when his return landed deep and short in the court.

The analysis comes from the Infosys ATP Return Tracker. It compares the winning percentages with short and deep returns versus second serves relative to a line halfway between the service line and the baseline.

Carlos Alcaraz Deep Return vs. Novak Djokovic (Nitto ATP Finals)

Deep Returns (Yellow Shaded Area)
Alcaraz led the Top 10 in winning points when his return landed deep in the court against second serves, such as in the picture above. Alcaraz’s ability to hit a heavy (power + spin) return to take time away from the server and especially attack the size of the backswing on Serve +1 forehand makes him incredibly adept in this specific part of the game.

The year-end Top 10 players with points won with deep returns against second serves are below.

Second-Serve Return Points Won With Deep Returns (Top 10 Average = 57%)
1. Carlos Alcaraz = 61.8%
2. Novak Djokovic = 61.5%
3. Andrey Rublev = 61.4%
4. Daniil Medvedev = 60.2%
5. Holger Rune = 59.7%
6. Jannik Sinner = 58.3%
7. Taylor Fritz = 58.2%
8. Alexander Zverev = 57.4%
9. Stefanos Tsitsipas = 52.8%
10. Hubert Hurkacz = 50.6%

There is a considerable 11 percentage point gap between Alcaraz (61.8%) in first place and Hubert Hurkacz (50.6%) in 10th place. It also speaks to how well Alcaraz stays on the attack once he establishes depth in the point.

Short Returns
It’s interesting to note that the average return points won versus second serves is only a 3.8 percentage points difference (57.0% to 53.2%). Alcaraz was also the leader in this category but could not break the 60 per cent threshold as he did with deep returns.

The Top 10 players in points won with short returns against second serves are below.

Second-Serve Return Points Won With Short Returns (Top 10 Average = 53.2%)
1. Carlos Alcaraz = 58.8%
2. Daniil Medvedev = 56.3%
3. Novak Djokovic = 55.4%
4. Andrey Rublev = 55.2%
5. Jannik Sinner = 55.1%
6. Taylor Fritz = 54.4%
7. Holger Rune = 54.3%
8. Alexander Zverev = 52.4%
9. Hubert Hurkacz = 50.1%
10. Stefanos Tsitsipas = 49.6%

Tsitsipas was the only Top 10 player not to garner a winning percentage (49.6%) when hitting shorter against second serves. Medvedev, Djokovic and Rublev all featured in the top four players with short and deep returns against second serves, but in a slightly different order.

Although Alcaraz won the highest tally in both categories, he was not the player who hit the deepest in the court consistently. That honour belonged to Rune.

Second-Serve Returns Hit Deep In The Court (Top 10 Average = 25.4%)
1. Holger Rune = 30.2%
2. Hubert Hurkacz = 27.0%
3. Jannik Sinner = 26.8%
4. Novak Djokovic = 26.4%
5. Carlos Alcaraz = 26.1%
6. Andrey Rublev = 24.8%
7. Taylor Fritz = 24.8%
8. Stefanos Tsitsipas = 23.6%
9. Alexander Zverev = 23.5%
10. Daniil Medvedev = 20.5%

Alcaraz fell to fifth place on this list but was still marginally above (26.1 to 25.4) the Top 10 average with deep returns. It seems, for the Spaniard, that it matters less where his ball bounces compared to what his ball does after it bounces. Alcaraz has the rare ability to blend high-end power with substantial spin, making the ball leap out of the court whether it’s short or deep. The deeper that ball is, the tougher it is to step into and attack.

It’s fascinating to see Medvedev in 10th position with only 20.5 per cent of returns struck deep, courtesy of his ultra-deep return position. But Medvedev still featured at the top of the leaderboards with points won with short and deep returns against second serves.

Second-serve return points won have always been a pivotal statistic in our sport. It’s certainly a cornerstone of Alcaraz’s game, powering him to six tournament victories in 2023, including his first Wimbledon title.