Where do Sinner & Alcaraz stand in battle for No. 1?

After four rounds of Roland Garros action, there is still plenty of potential movement to come in the PIF ATP Live Rankings.

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner, just one victory away from successfully defending his semi-final points from last year, could stretch his lead atop the PIF ATP Live Rankings to as many as 4,330 points by winning his first Roland Garros title. The reigning US Open and Australian Open champion leads No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz by 2,730 points entering the quarter-finals.

Alcaraz is defending 2,000 points as the returning Roland Garros champion and could meet Sinner in the final — a potential rematch of their five-set semi-final last year at the clay-court major. But because he is defending those points, that gives Sinner an opportunity to extend his World No. 1 advantage. Entering the tournament, the Italian led the Spaniard by 1,530 points in the PIF ATP Rankings.

However, if Sinner loses to Alexander Bublik in the quarter-finals and Alcaraz successfully defends his title, the Spaniard would claw to within 1,130 points of his rival. That is a big potential swing over the next week. 

PIF ATP Live Rankings (as of 2 June)

Alexander Zverev could yet overtake Alcaraz for World No. 2 this fortnight, but such a move would require the German to beat Novak Djokovic in the quarter-finals and Sinner or Bublk in the semis. If Alcaraz loses to Tommy Paul in the quarters, Zverev could pass the Spaniard by matching his runner-up finish from 2024. Zverev would not be able to pass Alcaraz if his rival reaches the final.

World No. 4 Taylor Fritz, who was upset by Daniel Altmaier in the opening round, will fall outside the Top 5 if Novak Djokovic or Lorenzo Musetti reach the semis. Musetti was ranked World No. 30 last year at Roland Garros, when he surrendered a two-sets-to-one lead against Djokovic in the third round. This year, he can move ahead of the Serbian if he betters the 38-year-old's result in Paris; both Djokovic and Musetti can climb as high as World No. 4.

The American success at Roland Garros could result in three American Top 10 players after the tournament. Joining Fritz could be Tommy Paul and Frances Tiafoe, who together ended a 22-year wait for an American quarter-finalist at the clay-court major.

Paul is up four places this week to No. 8 and can move no lower that his previous career-high of No. 9 by week's end, with his countryman the only player who can pass him. Tiafoe, who broke into the Top 10 in 2023, can return to the that elite group by beating Lorenzo Musetti in the quarters. The American has not dropped a set in his first four victories — a tally that matches his total Roland Garros wins in nine previous main-draw appearances.

Bublik has climbed 19 places in the Live Rankings to No. 43 since the start of the clay-court major. The first-time Grand Slam quarter-finalist can return to the Top 20 by winning the title.