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PIF ATP Live Rankings Projection

How Djokovic’s Rome defeat affects Sinner’s bid for No. 1

Italian Sinner will start Roland Garros ahead in Live Rankings
May 12, 2024
Jannik Sinner is a 13-time tour-level champion.
Corinne Dubreuil/ATP Tour
Jannik Sinner is a 13-time tour-level champion. By ATP Staff

Could Novak Djokovic’s Internazionali BNL d'Italia defeat be a turning point in the battle for World No. 1?

The Serbian’s third-round loss to Alejandro Tabilo in Rome has major implications for Jannik Sinner’s bid to reach top spot for the first time. Djokovic will remain 1,090 points clear of the Italian in the PIF ATP Rankings at the end of the ATP Masters 1000 in the Italian capital, but the situation will change dramatically once Roland Garros begins on 26 May.

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As the defending champion, Djokovic will be defending 2000 PIF ATP Rankings points at the clay-court major in Paris. In contrast, Sinner will be defending only 45. That means that once the 2023 Roland Garros points drop at the start of the tournament, Sinner will become No. 1 in the PIF ATP Live Rankings, with an 865-point lead over Djokovic.

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The three-time Roland Garros titlist Djokovic will need to reach at least the final in Paris in order to have a chance of remaining World No. 1. Even if Djokovic goes on to win his record-extending 25th Grand Slam crown, Sinner could ensure he rises to World No. 1 for the first time on 10 June by reaching the championship match.

If Djokovic reaches the final but loses, Sinner would only need to have reached the semi-finals in Paris to guarantee his rise to becoming the first Italian No. 1 in PIF ATP Rankings history.

Editor's note: An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated that Djokovic had to reach the semi-finals to have a chance of remaining at No. 1. In fact, he needs to reach at least the final to have a chance of remaining No. 1.

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