The top seed at the US Open is Alexander Zverev, the two-time Nitto ATP Finals champion and this year’s Roland Garros winner. Could the German claim Slam glory once again at Flushing Meadows?
“I feel like I'm one of the 128 players that are favourites in the draw,” he said Friday in New York.
But Zverev has been on the verge of victory at this tournament before, falling in a memorable final at the 2020 US Open to Dominic Thiem. However, the 29-year-old is a much different player today than he was six years ago.
According to an Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis, what was arguably Zverev’s biggest weakness is now one of his greatest strengths: his second serve.
Zverev's Second-Serve Pts Won % (2016-2026)
| Year | Second-Serve Pts Won % | Tour Ranking |
| 2026 | 57.7% | 3 |
| 2025 | 53.5% | 10 |
| 2024 | 54.8% | 9 |
| 2023 | 49.5% | 38 |
| 2022 | 48% | - |
| 2021 | 52.3% | 16 |
| 2020 | 45% | - |
| 2019 | 44.3% | 49 (last) |
| 2018 | 52.4% | 23 |
| 2017 | 53.2% | 9 |
| 2016 | 50.5% | 36 |
During the middle of Zverev’s career, the German struggled with the stroke immensely. In 2019, his second-serve points won percentage (44.3%) ranked last among all qualifying players on the ATP Tour, according to Infosys ATP Stats.
That difficult stretch lasted — for the most part — from 2019 through 2023. Among qualifying players, Zverev did not finish in the Top 15 on the ATP Tour in any of those seasons.
Not only was he struggling to win second-serve points, but Zverev was simply having difficulty putting his second serve in the court. During those four seasons, the 6’6” righty averaged 5.7 (2019), 5.6 (2020), 3.7 (2021) and 3.6 (2022) double faults per match. Since then, he has not hit more than 2.7 double faults per match across a season.
That is not to say that hitting more double faults always reflects a lesser second serve. But for Zverev, his double fault count was a sign of his confidence levels in the shot and playing behind it.
Zverev's Double Faults By Year (2016-2026)
| Year | Double Faults | DF Per Match |
| 2026 | 126 | 2.1 |
| 2025 | 152 | 1.9 |
| 2024 | 183 | 2 |
| 2023 | 222 | 2.7 |
| 2022 | 141 | 3.6 |
| 2021 | 271 | 3.7 |
| 2020 | 220 | 5.6 |
| 2019 | 392 | 5.7 |
| 2018 | 210 | 2.7 |
| 2017 | 265 | 3.4 |
| 2016 | 294 | 4.3 |
Over the past three seasons, Zverev has double faulted on average 2 (2024), 1.9 (2025) and 2.1 (2026) times per match across each season. Those represent the best marks of his career.
And his performance behind his second serve has followed. In those same seasons, he has ranked in the Top 10 on the ATP Tour in second-serve points won. In 2026, he is currently third, the best placing of his career.
This year, the German has won 57.7 per cent of his second-serve points, even though he has never previously broken the 55-per cent threshold. It is no coincidence that he is the No. 2 player in the PIF ATP Rankings.
During the Covid-19-shortened 2020 season, when Zverev made the US Open final, he won 45 per cent of his second-serve points. Time will tell if he will make it that far in New York again, but it is safe to say that this version of Alexander Zverev is not the same player.
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