ATP Tour

Why Alcaraz can't catch Sinner for No. 1 at Wimbledon

Jannik Sinner arrives at Wimbledon as the World No. 1 for a second straight year, and no matter what unfolds over the next fortnight, the 23-year-old will leave London still holding the top spot.

Yet that doesn’t mean that the grass-court major won’t carry significant weight in the battle between Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, the red-hot, two-time defending champion at SW19, ready to close the gap and shift momentum.

Sinner currently owns a 1,130-point cushion over Alcaraz atop the PIF ATP Live Rankings, but the breakdown reveals how intriguing the lead really is. Alcaraz is defending 2,000 points from his Wimbledon triumph last year, while Sinner has 400 to protect from his quarter-final run. Even if Alcaraz lifts the trophy for a third consecutive year and Sinner exits early, the Italian’s current margin guarantees he remains World No. 1 through the tournament.

PIF ATP Live Rankings (as of 25 June) 

Still, the bigger picture is far more complex and intriguing. If Alcaraz defends his Wimbledon crown, he will crank up the pressure on Sinner for the remainder of the season, when he has a mountain of points to defend himself. Sinner surged through the back end of 2024, claiming titles at the ATP Masters 1000 events in Cincinnati and Shanghai, either side of winning the US Open and reaching the Beijing final.

Conversely, Wimbledon presents Sinner with a prime opportunity to tighten his grip on World No. 1. Should he better last year’s quarter-final showing — and potentially capture his first title at SW19 — he would also seize valuable momentum in the PIF ATP Live Race To Turin, the key barometer for the coveted ATP Year-End No. 1 presented by PIF honours.

Alcaraz, who became the youngest ATP Year-End No. 1 in 2022, leads the Live Race by 2,240 points after a blistering clay-court stretch, in which he triumphed in Rome and Roland Garros, defeating Sinner in both finals. The Spaniard now owns an 8-4 advantage in their growing Lexus ATP Head2Head rivalry and arrives at Wimbledon riding a career-best 18-match winning streak after winning at Queen’s Club.

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Beyond the marquee Sinner-Alcaraz rivalry, several other rankings narratives will unfold at Wimbledon. British No. 1 Jack Draper, at a career-high World No. 4, has the chance to close the gap on No. 3 Alexander Zverev, who is currently 1,850 points ahead.

The 23-year-old Draper owns a 2-3 tournament record, according to the Infosys ATP Win/Loss Index, and is yet to progress past the second round. Zverev reached the fourth round last year before falling to Taylor Fritz.

For players eyeing a maiden Nitto ATP Finals appearance, Wimbledon offers a major opportunity to shake up the Live Race standings.

PIF ATP Live Race To Turin (as of 25 June)

Lorenzo Musetti, currently fifth, trails Draper by just 290 points. Meanwhile, Tommy Paul holds the eighth and final qualifying spot, with Ben Shelton and Jakub Mensik at 11th and 12th, respectively.

Record seven-time Nitto ATP Finals champion Novak Djokovic is sixth and holds a healthy 505-point lead over seventh-placed Casper Ruud. Last year’s debutant Alex de Minaur and Holger Rune sit at ninth and 10th.