How the Roland Garros final will impact Sinner & Alcaraz’s battle for No. 1

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz’s first meeting in a Grand Slam final will have significant ramifications for the pair’s duel atop the PIF ATP Rankings.

World No. 1 Sinner has the opportunity to cap his 52nd week as World No. 1 by winning his first Roland Garros title and significantly strengthen his standing as the world’s top player. If he defeats No. 2 Alcaraz at the clay major in Paris, the 23-year-old Italian will on Monday extend his lead from his rival to a huge 3,430 points.

Sinner would also feel confident of extending that sizeable lead even further in the coming grass-court season. Although he has to defend 500 points as the reigning titlist at the Terra Wortmann Open in Halle, Alcaraz must then protect 2,000 points as defending champion at Wimbledon, where Sinner lost in the quarter-finals last year (400 points).

Yet the stakes remain high for Sinner in Sunday’s championship match on the Paris clay. If Alcaraz prevails and lifts his fifth Grand Slam trophy, the 22-year-old Spaniard would cut his rival’s lead to a more moderate 2,030 points. It represents a major opportunity for Alcaraz to keep Sinner within touching distance into the second half of the 2025 season.

Sinner will on Sunday complete his first year at No. 1. Just five of the 29 No. 1s in PIF ATP Rankings history (since 1973) managed to hold onto the top spot for a full year in their debut stint: Jimmy Connors, Lleyton Hewitt, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Sinner. The wider he extends the lead, the longer his streak is likely to continue, which makes Sunday’s match all the more important for Alcaraz, the youngest No. 1 in history, and his chances of returning to top spot in the near future.

PIF ATP Live Rankings (as of 7 June)

Below Sinner and Alcaraz, Jack Draper, Novak Djokovic and Lorenzo Musetti will all climb one spot on Monday off the back of their Roland Garros performances. Draper will reach a career-high No. 4 after earning his first three match wins at the clay major, while Djokovic and Musetti both reached the semi-finals.

Meanwhile Tommy Paul will make his return to the Top 10 on Monday, after more than three months outside of the elite group, following his run to the quarter-finals in Paris. Paul and Frances Tiafoe became the first American men to reach the quarter-finals at the clay major since Andre Agassi in 2003. Paul is now just one spot behind Taylor Fritz in the battle to become American No. 1, although Fritz remains 975 points clear of his countryman.